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Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviations (Read 406 times)
James Gunasekera
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Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviations
« on: 11.10.2009 at 18:14 [UT+1] »
 
Please read about my research:
http://james.freehoster.co.cc/is.html
I will listen carefully to all your comments.
This version of the text is actually intended not for astrologers, but I've used astrological approaches, so I believe it can be interesting.  
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Shokk
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Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #1 - on: 12.10.2009 at 12:02 [UT+1] »
 
Very intriguing, I just skimmed through it now, but it looks like a promising and accurate approach, I'll pick through it later and scrutinize the thing more finely. It's very interesting what you've said about Quaoar, though, now I feel compelled to look at it's place in my own chart.
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James Gunasekera
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Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #2 - on: 13.11.2009 at 06:08 [UT] »
 
Does anyone here use Swiss ephemeris?
Is anyone able to check whether a particular moment
satisfies the Quaoar criterion presented in the article, or not?
e.g. 21.10.1833, 10:48 GMT
 
Where could this article be published? If you have any idea, please share.
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sharasa
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Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #3 - on: 16.11.2009 at 12:05 [UT] »
 
It looks like you've done a lot of work -unfortunately it's beyond many of us average members so don't be disappointed by the lack of response. You might try getting the attention of Ed Fallis or someone on the astro site team like Alois or Dieter.
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Chaos858
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Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #4 - on: 16.11.2009 at 12:58 [UT] »
 
in the chart selection box you have to write in the white box in the left corner '50000'
 
that's Quaoar
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James Gunasekera
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Posts: 11
Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #5 - on: 17.11.2009 at 02:02 [UT] »
 
Quote from sharasa on 16.11.2009 at 12:05 [UT]:
unfortunately it's beyond many of us average members
it was beyond me a few months ago, but now I see that it's not as difficult as I thought it would be.
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Waybread
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Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #6 - on: 17.11.2009 at 04:23 [UT] »
 
James, your study looks interesting, but I had trouble following it.  If you will forgive some advice from a retired professor, I think we would follow your work a lot better if you wrote it up according to standard research paper guidelines.
 
1.  Introduction.  What is the work about?  What are you attempting to demonstrate? What is your hypothesis?
2.  What are the methods that you will use to test your hypothesis?  What data will you collect?
3.  Along with #2, indicate the assumptions upon which your research is based, and how you will control for biases or 'false positives"/
4.  Your results.
5.  Your conclusions about your hypothesis.
 
With regard to your research, I wasn't clear about your control groups (10 million?? were these actual or hypothetical people??), nor about the specific statistical tests you used.  I would think you would need  to collect a sufficiently large sample to meet the criteria of the statistical tests used, also.  As you know, of the 4 science fiction writers you sampled, the sample is clearly too small to generalize beyond it.
 
Then also, your sample populations have to make some sense.  As you indicate, Nobel prizes cover a wide range of disciplines ranging from literature to economics to physics.  If these differences are inconsequential in your study, then is the operative variable the Nobel prize selection committee?
 
While it might be reasonable to use gravity amongst celestial objects as your independent variable, this should be clarified and justified.  Why should gravity affect your results?
 
What is the source of your information that more births occur at night?  A look at hundreds of horoscopes might convince of us of the truth or error of that statement.  Unfortunately we can't tell from horoscopes of people born since WWII whether their births were "natural" or not.  
 
I have only a very ancient and small background in statistics and none in programming, but I have tried to raise the kinds of questions that are standard for most types of scientific research papers.
 
Nevertheless, please keep up the good work! Cheesy  Astrology needs researchers who understand the astrology, programming, and "number-crunching".  Not many people can do this, unfortunately.  How wonderful that you can.
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James Gunasekera
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Posts: 11
Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #7 - on: 17.11.2009 at 18:34 [UT] »
 
Waybread, thank you for interesting comments! I understand your concerns, especially about too small samples, but the biggest problem is that I don't have enough time for my Solar Sytem-related research, because it does me no good except satisfying my curiosity. That's why I prefer to spend this time building databases and trying new methods instead of writing scientifically blameless articles (as if they could be published in peer-reviewed journals).
 
Maybe I'll write something better next year, maybe not, this year here's my second and last article: http://james.freehoster.co.cc/f2/further_research.pdf
If you find some of my databases or methods useful, you are welcome to write your own article (if you don't like using someone else's databases, you can build your own, there's a lot to choose from, for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_literary_awards ) Otherwise why not to wait till better databases and methods appear, or someone finishes a more readable work?
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Waybread
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Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #8 - on: 18.11.2009 at 05:16 [UT] »
 
James, thanks.  I don't have the statistical or programming skills to do the kind of research you are undertaking.  My main suggestion (for anyone!) is that if a piece of research is clearly written and easy to follow, then you are more likely to get constructive feedback on it.  I am not talking about the standards of published scientific reasearch:  more like the elementary writing principles we learned as students. In my previous post I did try to ask some questions relevant to your work as best I understood it, such as the nature of your control group. Astrology really needs some decent statistical studies, especially ones with large sample sizes.  So I applaud what you are doing, even if you didn't like my feedback!
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James Gunasekera
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Posts: 11
Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #9 - on: 21.11.2009 at 08:16 [UT] »
 
Waybread, I appreciate your feedback! no need to regret about lack of programming and statistical skills, I'm sure you can find people willing to help you (and having such skills) on this forum. I am one of them  Smiley
 
About your questions:  
1. 726*2048 hypothetical people. As explained at the very beginning, for each of the 726 laureates, the moment (his/her moment of birth plus a random number of days) is added to the control group. 2048 is the range of the random item: +-1024 days. Ten million control groups are formed using this method. You can try adding also a random number of minutes, I'm sure the mean value and standard deviation will be very similar. I tried adding a random number of 90-minute units (there are 16 such units in 24 hours), and variation was slightly higher: +5.693 for Nobel laureates, +3.172 for the new data discussed in further_research.pdf . Also, I tried some sets of actual people, up to 20000 in one set, the observed mean value was close to 24.5%.  
 
2. "If these differences are inconsequential in your study, then is the operative variable the Nobel prize selection committee?" - these differences are important, they are discussed in item 7 and in the 'Further research' article (it was published yesterday at http://vixra.org/abs/0911.0053 )
 
3. "Why should gravity affect your results?" - I don't know why results are much better for the criterion with only four objects, and even better if Mars is also included, thus only Mercury and Saturn are excluded.  
 
4. "What is the source of your information that more births occur at night?"  
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%2B%22labor+onset+in+women%22+%2B%22kno wn+to+peak+during+night+hours%22&start=10&sa=N&filter=0&cad=h  
Nineteen results, minus two links to my article.
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solarwind
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Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #10 - on: 21.11.2009 at 18:09 [UT] »
 
why did you pick quaoar for this study?..... if you have a decent link on quaorar's symbolism, i ll appreciate.... interesting fact that the waning square has stronger manifestation....
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James Gunasekera
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Posts: 11
Re: Nobel Prize laureates,large statistical deviat
« Reply #11 - on: 22.11.2009 at 07:23 [UT] »
 
Quote from solarwind on 21.11.2009 at 18:09 [UT]:
why did you pick quaoar for this study?..... if you have a decent link on quaorar's symbolism, i ll appreciate.... interesting fact that the waning square has stronger manifestation....
Not only Quaoar was tested, see the 1st table in the 1st study. Sorry, I don't have links on Quaoar's symbolism, I'd say more databases should be built and studied before conclusions on symbolism, and not only databases with admittedly higher percentage. For example, if the percentage is significantly higher among laureates of various peace prizes, can it be observed that it's significantly lower among those who enjoy military service? among war criminals?
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